Tonights Headline Bout: The Rossi Challenge

Lining up in the Red Corner, under the banner of "Rossi is one of the
all time greats of Motorcycle Racing":

Mick Doohan
Wayne Rainey
Wayne Gardener
Randy Mamola

And in the Blue Corner, battling under the banner of "Rossi is just a
lucky Italian who wouldn't even make the podium in the AMA" we have:

Mark Nusbaum

The fight to be decided by two knockdowns or a submission.

Cheers,

 

Add me to the list. At this point, it's stupid to claim otherwise. There's
just no doubt left. You don't get lucky as often in racing.

It doesn't mean Rossi is unbeatable. All these guys ride at an amazingly
high level. But Rossi is better because he beats them more often than they
beat him. In the best motorcycling series of the world by far. End of story.

Ultimately, it is not good for spectacle in a sport when someone establishes
a one-sided dominance. What made this year exciting was that Rossi was more
vulnerable than ever on a new bike, and it seemed possible that Biaggi or
Gibernau might win the title by mid-season. Alas, Rossi dominated the second
half.

....pablo

 

Actually, I disagree. While Mark has good knowledge and digs up good data
regularly, he is also known to manipulate data and to lie wabout what people
supposedly claim. See my exchange on Edwards with him, where he claimed I
called Edwards a poor rider despite the fact that I have always and
consistently rated him among the top 5 riders in MotoGP, and stated so
often. Mark has childish tendency to overreact to criticism, or to become
vondictive when he's wrong. Not talking to him has made my RMC experience
far more enjoyable, and even though I miss some of his insights, it's better
this way, and there's enough knowledgable people with less fanatic biases
around here. I tried to live with the guy, but when someone regularly
resorts to lying and bitchy regurgitations of a theme it's better to end it,
especially since we both live in the same area, might eventually run into
each other riding bikles on the usual spots, and I might feel too damn
compelled to remind him of his insolence he's displayed with amazing
regularity if we keep going at it.

Taking it is where many people fall short, which is a sure indication they
take both the subject and themselves way too seriously. Mark likes to give
it, but is pathetic at taking it. Gracious he is not. He has made so many
wrong calls and preached lunatic speculative "facts" that lead nowhere, and
yet amusingly he likes to portray himself as solely relying on numbers.
Please.

Whatever happens next year will not undo this year, or last, or the one
before that, or the other before that to top it off. If Rossi doesn't win
next year, it could be for many reasons, and he'd still be a great rider in
GP history. Just like Roberts or Lawson didn't stop being great because they
didn't win championships against other great riders that emerged over time.
That's the way of any sport: there'll always be the humbling experience that
makes the great hampion look very human in the end. For every Rocky Marciano
that retires undefeated there's fifty who don't.

....pablo

 

Many of the legendary rivalries weren't actually even that close when you
look at it. The Rainey-Schwantz thing, for example - I seem to recall Doohan
gave Rainey a better run for his money in the championship points, and when
Schwantz finally won it was because Rainey was unfortunately out for good.
Schwantz was inconsistent until he got it together. Not that different from
Gibrnau and Biaggi this year, who did show flashes of brialliance and early
promise until they caved in under pressure later on. I think Rossi had very
worthy rivals this year, he just demolished them later in the season. Which
incidentally also was the Rainey way, and it is what makes great champions:
they keep their cool when the pressure is on towards the end of the season,
and the difference is that is exactly when Rossi was the best. And that's
how great champions respond. Let's not forget we all harbored doubts until
after the mid-season. Yes, you too, Mark, wherever you are.

I don't think it became clear just now. I think many people in this very
newsgroup predicted this was Biaggi's year to shine, yet at the same time
harbored some doubts about his ability to stand up to pressure. It was a
re-ocurring theme in our MotoGP predicitions thread before the season.

Gibernau also was let down by the simply fact he hadn't been in the running
for a championship before, and I think he also did fold under the pressure,
even if not as much and as early as Biaggi. Next year Gibernau might do
better, but then again next year the Rossi-Yamaha combo will probably have
grown stronger. Then again, it's likely Honda will throw its entire might
into play in '05, so it will be interesting what a supercharged
Gibernau-Biaggi-Hayden trio with official backing can do in '05. There'll be
absolutely no excuses whatsoever then. Rossi has made his statement. They
have one last chance to make theirs.

I'd add Edwards, Xaus, Hayden, Hopkins and Capirossi to those honorable
mentions. They merit to be included in the flashes of brilliance thing if
the guys above are explicitly mentioned.

Pedrosa? I am not sure he's looked dominant enough among the 250 guys -who
in all fairness are a competitive and fast bunch- to make me assume he'll
challenge Rossi on the big bikes. I still think the biggest hope comes from
the Honda camp as HRC truly kicks it up a notch next year, and hopefully
Gibernau, Biaggi and Hayden bring it on. Edwards on Yamaha? Unfortunately, I
am pretty sure we'll hear the story of him riding inferior spec next year,
again - quite predictable I think. I would have liked to see Hayden and
Edwards reversed - the latter on Yamaha, learning from Rossi, the former on
a factory spec Honda. I say that because i somehow expect Edwards to be more
of a potential title threat on a HRC spec Honda that Hayden will be.

With Barros, Bayliss and Checa maybe fading from the MotoGP picture, the
question is who else is going to get recruited into it. Somebody make Mladin
a good offer (even though he didn't much improve statistically/numerically


....pablo

....pablo

 

YUP, this was Lawsons season, Schwantz was to consistent, like he was the
years after. And, as I wrote in a different thread, I really would like
to have seen the last race in '93 with Rainey. Raineys serious crash in
the race before last was somehow a gift for Schwantz. No question,
Schwantz was outstanding, and I like(d) his riding style, but he was
always a bit less competitive than Rainey, even in Superbike times where
Schwantz/Rainey had their first fun.

[snip, a lot true and good things]

No, not a championship, a race yes. If Biaggi is (or was) the challenger
for Rossi, it is (was) this year. He had the best bike and finished
third. (And was beaten by Gibernau...)

But it is fine, what I will never forget was his murder wheely in Suzuka
as he won the first GP500. But thats it, and was 2000(?)

Lets bring another person into play. What is about Capirossi? He was a
real challenge for Rossi in GP250.


Henry

 

Truth in humour. See
http://www.motogpnews.com/home.php?pageid=222

"We pay a shit-load of money for the best bikes", said a Repsol
employee, "So we don't like it when them best bikes go to the lesser,
and poorer sponsored Honda teams. It's not our fault they [Honda] picked
them two buffoons [Hayden and Barros] as their top riders. We used to
have it sweet in the old days when that smug Oz guy and that geezer who
kept fainting every two minutes were winning every race by a mile. We
want that back, so we've told Honda - in no uncertain terms - that they
must give us, and ONLY us, the best bikes or we'll take our hideous
mountains of cash and invest it in WCM instead."

Good question. I'd like to see Shakey Byrne get a better ride than the
Aprilia. But given his injury and being off the scene he could end up
anywhere next year. like AMA Ducati for instance. It doesn't look like
anyone is going to join MotoGP from BSB or AMA. Porto and Pedrosa have
looked very impressive this year in 250s. But I don't think either of
them will move. De Angelis has also been impressive in his first year
but he needs at least another year in 250. In WSB, there's also Haga and
McCoy. I don't know if anyone would give Haga another chance in MotoGP.
And McCoy just hasn't done enough this year.

MotoGP really ought to have 26-28 riders. What we'll probably get next
year is 3 winners, 7 people who are competitive and 12 no hopers
(although those with no hope will still go faster than top 10 this
year). This maybe is the downside of the expense of 4-strokes. It might
well get awfully thin, even if the battles among the front 5 are as good
as ever.

 

That's rather a Catch 22 objection. So, Rossi isn't great because he's too
far ahead of the other guys ? But then if he was being closely challenged,
Mark would pipe up "see, he's not that good". You might as well argue
that both Rainey and Schwantz were mediocore, since neither was that much
better than the other

Cheers,

 

Looks to me that Vermulen is the more promising.

 

He's got another year to run on his contract before he can move up.
He'll want to win the WSB championship first as well.

 

Perhaps because it's so rare. In his entire career he's had very few
DNFs and very few practice crashes. Hence the 100 podiums from 139
starts.

 

Kind of fit your numbercrunching personality, but most others, I think,
would vote the truly great to be the one winning but on the edge, with
occasional crashes. The one with a hart for the sport and the viechle rather
than hart for the victory.

/MBE

 

That's not maths, that's explanation. It may be true but it still
doesn't change that "In his entire career, he's had very few DNFs and
very few practice crashes."

 

You mean the year *after* next. In which case we'll have another year to
judge. And I think he'll have to win WSB pretty conclusively to have
even a chance of getting a competitive MotoGP ride. Which is what I said
in fewer words. So yes.

One year to learn in 600ss, dominant champ the next. One year to learn
in SBK, dominant the next. Move to MotoGP. Sounds like a similar story
to 5 years of 125Gp, 250GP and 500GP. But then Vermeulen is still only
part way though the journey. We'll see. The spark that makes you think
he might do it was Silverstone, Laguna and Assen this year.

 

I find interesting you introduce the tire to evaluate Vermulen. To me this
is not relevant as the they were all with Pirelli. Yes they were, let's say,
1 sec slower everywhere, but it doesn't change anything for the good riders
who have to be at limit of the tires.
Vermulen has been fast and didn't make any mistake at any round. He was in
contention for the title before these last 3 mechanical DNFs. For a first
year in WSB (also for Ten Kate and the CBR) it is the mark of great talent.
I just hope HRC will help him next year.

 

People seems to search explanations for all sorts in the equipment, but
truth is that any rider at that level should easily be able to quickly
addopt to changes like tire and engine. 4stroke or 2stroke, Michelin, Dunlop
or Pirelli doesn't matter.
I'm not saying they are all equal, only that any rider above club racing
shouldn't have much problem figuring out new configurations and use those
close to thir limit.

/MBE

 

If you are speaking of the warm up lap of race 2 at Imola it was not his
fault. He got oil flooding on his rear tire due to an engine break.
What he did after in the race is another proof of his talent.

 

That was reported as being mechanical. Oil on the rear tyre.

Indeed. However whether it's a training ground or not, it looks like
being a good year next year (doesn't it always!).
Here's what we might have.
Fila Ducati - Toseland, Hodgeson
Alstare Suzuki - Corser, Kagayama
PSG1 Kawasaki - Walker+1
Yamaha France - Gimbert
Yamaha Italia - Haga, Pitt
Ten Kate Honda - Vermeulen, Muggeridge
Chili-Honda - Chili

And then there's GSE (something) - Bayliss

I'm worried that MotoGP may be on the verge of pricing itself out of the
market. The top 4 or 5 will be ultra competitive as always, but it might
well end up looking awfully thin behind them.

 

As to WSB providing talent for MotoGP... of course it can happen, but I
think WSB has suffered a lot, and if guys like Bayliss and Hodgson can not
make the transition successfully, it truly makes me wonder about Tosland and
Vermeulen. It could happen, but for sure it would require a period of
Hayden-like adaptation (and at this stage we must nearly assume Hayden is as
good as he'll ever get). And make no mistake, Hayden has proven immense
talent, which shows one how hot the MotoGP field is - it does represent the
utter elite of the sport.

The upshot is that perhaps for now the best of the best *are* in MotoGP, and
that we'll have to wait at least another year until someone somewhere makes
a breakthrough that truly makes their inclusion in the MotoGP ranks a
no-brainer. I man, see us struggle to come up with new names here... And I
don't say that lightly - I'd love for someone to light a fire under Rossi's
ass. Yeah, I think he's the very best, but I am bored of him winning,
dammit. At some point in time, Rossi *must* become somewhat less hungry,
comfortable in his success and unwilling to take the risks he repeatedly
took this year. Then again, some of these guys are just different, as Doohan
and Rainey showed, who stayed *fiercely* competitive throughout their
careers.

Rossi's competition is very likely to be the same he had this year, because
Honda has more resources than Yamaha, make no mistake about that, and will
throw everything in to get the title back. And that's worked for them in the
past repeatedly. Of course, in the past they also basically put all their
bets clearly on one or two riders (like Edwards and Slight in WSB, which
reminds me, where's Slight these days?), whereas in MotoGP even now they
can't really get to make up their minds, which is laughable and embarassing
from a strategy point of view. Word now is that Gibernau is not getting top
notch Honda support, which is a 100% repetition of the mistake Honda made
this year. They backed Barros, who's never had a history of consistency at
the top, despite being very fast in individual races, and now their top
notch bet is Biaggi, who pretty much has a long and venerable history of
exactly the same thing, and who I do not expect to win even on the very best
bike, because he'll find a way to sabotage himself mentally at some point in
time when the pressure becomes overwhelming. I know some disagree, but that
is my firm opinion on Biaggi - this should have been his year. But he always
starts strong, fades, has a revival -as if to prove something-, and then
fades for good. There's a pattern there. Just like Barros' pattern has
traditionally been to shine some towards the end of the season when the
title is out of reach. Let's see if the '05 season proves me wrong.

Gibernau has started to get under Rossi's skin, and that is something Honda
should capitalize on, because it makes Rossi make mistakes. Biaggi doesn't,
I don't think Rossi fears Biaggi all that much -their initial 500cc rivalry
and Biaggi's initial contempt for Rossi fizzled quickly when the latter
clearly could not do much to challenge Rossi. And I think it must be
somewhat embarassing for Biaggi that he as the very clear number 1 for
Yamaha was never able to even remotely utilize the resources as effectively
as Rossi has now done. Rossi has done better than Biaggi on Honda, and on a
Yamaha. There simply is no doubt left there as who the better of the two is
since the second season Rossi spent on 500cc. With Gibernau, while I am not
convinced he's a faster rider than Biaggi, but I think Rossi's psychological
advantage ovr Gibernau, while significant, is not as overwhelming. And that
is important. Gibernau is more likely to make Rossi get hot-headed and make
mistakes. And if he sits on a bike that represent the best the almighty
Honda puts together, then Rossi may make even more mistakes than this year,
and that would be it. But Gibernau -like everyone else- needs a significant
bike advantage over Rossi, let's be clear about that. This year has proven
that.

I think it unbelievable Honda HRC is supposedly not going to give Giberau
top notch support, as has been reported this week. A moronic move. But
perhaps merely one to distract Yamaha's attention and misdirect their
strategy?

....pablo

 

Perhaps, KRSR is right... maybe it's time to consider a control tire
for MotoGP to give the smaller teams a fighting chance.

 

It all depend on the sponsors contracts. But it would probably make more
sense for Honda to do what Yamaha did and make Biaggi and Gibernau
factory riders with factory technicians but running different livery. In
other words absorb the Gresini team into the Repsol team.