Road Atlanta AMA race. ZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzz........

Whatever you want it to be. It might be fun to put one word or phrase
against each one. But look at them all on the same page and I can't see
any real difference between the top 5 in WSB, AMA and BSB. It's easy to
point out a flaw in all 15. And at this stage in the season, if you
didn't make the top 5 you're an also ran. There's a lot of old blood in
there too. Which leaves just Vermeulen and Zemke (and perhaps Scott
Smart) as the future[1]. The one other possibility is Kagayama. Assuming
Suzuki go back to WSB next year they might want a factory rider next to
whoever gets chosen by the Corona team. I can't really imagine Lavilla
coming back, but you never know.

Meanwhile the MotoGP guys feel head and shoulders above all of them.

[1]A thought about Mat Mladin. He did the deal with the devil at his
personal crossroads. The attractions of earning loads of money while
cherry picking means, in the words of the song, "you can check in but
you can never leave". I reckon he's got a good few AMA championships
left in him but he'll finish his career there.

 

And by extracting single phrases out of context I can find something to
argue with.

Here we go.

Damn, Mark. You're so provincial ;-)

Bring on a Transatlantic challenge and we might find out. Because Mat is
never going to leave. And the structure of the series now means he'll
never do a wild card ride again. So all we can do is quote statistics to
try and prove it.

Out of those 15, the only one on the way up who probably hasn't peaked
yet is Vermeulen. There's another bunch in the middle of their careers
who still have championship wins in them but have probably found their
level. And a bunch of old farts who still have one or two years of
podiums in them. What's also interesting is the riders who haven't made
top 5.

 

I don't know. There's something about him that just doesn't impress me.
Some lack of star quality or something. A bit too much British whinging
perhaps. A Bayliss, Xaus, Hodgeson, Edwards, (Hell Slight, Fogarty,
Kocinski, Corser) would have cleaned up this year rather than struggling
to keep 3 points ahead. He's only got a one year contract with no
options so even if he wins this year, there won't be a MotoGP ride and
perhaps not even a Ducati factory ride. So no he doesn't feel like a
champion.

But that's exactly the point. Hasn't he said in interviews that he
wouldn't join the world circus with all that travelling unless he had a)
a fully competitive ride and b) a decent salary. Isn't this exactly the
same moan that Fogarty had in those early WSB years. Absolutely
convinced that he was the best in the world but not prepared to do the
time on a second string team or second string ride to get to the point
where he can prove it.

I'm not dumping on him or his ability. I just don't think he'll ever
leave and will finish his career in the AMA. And so we'll never know
what his real potential was. Winning a big national championship is no
small thing. Winning several, even more so. But it's still only a
national championship and doesn't contain the best riders in the world.
If you never measure yourself against them, you'll never know.

 

Re Toseland. Me Too. Whatever happens this year, next year is going to
be a challenge for him.

How many AMA champs have gone on to World championships? And either won
or done OK. Corser, B Boz, Doug Polen. There are others aren't there
(since '90, so not Schwantz, Lawson, Rainey)? If Mat was going to go it
would have been after his first championship. Like Bayliss, Hodgeson,
Tamada, Byrne and many others he might have leveraged a National
Championship into a new or renewed World career. But it's too late now.

Looking at his performance since you have to say that somebody saw
potential not just the money. And he must have learnt something during
those 6 years or he wouldn't be the only person to challenge Vale and
pretty consistently fastest Honda (or last year, the other Hondas). Sete
did his time on un-competitive bikes and eventually leveraged that into
a decent ride.

Which then brings up Hopkins. There's a good chance Hopkins won't even
be in MotoGP next year, which will be a real shame. It's never going to
happen, but what if you transplanted Hopkins and Mladin next year.

 

Mladin is as prepared as anybody in the world right now to move into the
premier class. How well he does ultimately remains to be seen.

 

I can sort of see Mladin's angle. Look how great Bayliss looked in
WSB and then he gets in GP and he hasn't done so well. The same
for Edwards (and he is on a Honda). So as great as Mladin looks
in AMA, I am not so sure he would do well in GP. Probably the
only chance he would have for a ride would be Suzuki and I don't
think that team is going anywhere soon. I am not sure Rossi/Burgess
could even do anything to make that bike win.

 

I totally agree with what Max said and I have thought that to be
the case all along. I guess they either thought that Rossi
gave them a realistic chance and so they got their ass in
gear and/or they thought they had spent so much money
on Rossi, they had better make it worthwhile and put
their full effort behind him.

Yes, Edwards and Bayliss have been a disappointment. Regardless
of the reason, they have not performed that well. My point was
that even thought Edwards is on a Honda with Michelin tires
he has not done well (usually battling for 7th-8th). So even
if Mladin were to get a Honda or Yamaha in GP it would be
no guarantee that it would be a competitive package.

Edwards being 4th is mainly a result of him not crashing or
having mechanical problems. I don't think he is pushing hard
enough to ever crash because he doens't see the point. I
don't think if he pushed hard it would have made much and a
difference. He has said as much himself.

 

I agree with the above paragraph.
I would also add that Hopkins has been running much better lately too.

It certainly has been a great decision for the fans!

 

For sure. But building championship winning motorcycles is not just a
case of throwing money and effort at the problem. It's a technical
challenge every bit as difficult as riding them.

As ever, it's not enough to just be fast. You have to win the political
and social engineering battles as well.

It's sometimes difficult to understand why Suzuki, Kawasaki, Proton,
Aprilia go MotoGP racing. I find it easier to understand WCM and Proton.
If you could get someone to pay you to build a bike, travel to every
MotoGP and take part, even right at the back, wouldn't you do it? But
the others?

I guess Rossi is cleverer than Max then. Because it's certainly not luck
that creates those situations.

What's he going to do for the next 8 years then? That's not a put down,
that's a question.

It does seem quite likely that there'll be a Corona Suzuki WSB team next
year. My guess is that it'll be Lavilla-Kagayama. It *could* be
Mladin-Hopkins. But that's pretty unlikely.

 

You will never give up with that Mark.
Don't forget that Hayden and Edwards are in MotoGP paid by.....spanish
money!!!!
I would understand somebody from Norvegia or Peru complaining about that but
I do believe that Spain and USA are on the same level on this aspect of
modern motor racing.

 

Like, say, Chili or McWilliams then. So the correct answer is two more
years, two more championships and then 6 and the rest of his life
playing golf in Palm Springs. Or racing power boats with his mate
Doohan. I guess. Or jest. (I've know idea if he is mates with Doohan,
but you get the idea)

Ah, bless.

 

Or Argentina even. Isn't Porto on a Repsol bike?

JB

 

What's the point of pushing so hard that the end result is a crash?
These guys are professionals. They know where the limit of the bike is.
Falling off a bike is not a low risk endeavor.

 

Are you also missing that Dorna and the constructors are going back for a
round in USA next year...just for the sport??? To have this round they
needed and they need US big names as you like to say.
So don't worry Nicky and Colin will be there next year, at least for
commercial reasons...

 

And a very small set of them want to stand on the top step and say "I'm
the best in the world".

 

Mark, I admire your dilligent fact-checking in a medium that lets
people spit out whatever BS they want in an argument. You should
seriously consider going into some sort of TV or online race analysis
for real. Give Dave Despain a call or something.

At the same time, I just wanna give you my 2 cents on this obsession
with numbers. Think for a moment what the purpose of this numbers
excersize is -- to separate human ability from equipment, luck, and
otherwise irrelevant circumstances, right? But where does this pure
ability comes from? It can probably be attributed to 3 main factors:
talent (potential), hard work (experience), and motivation.
Experience and work can be quantified somewhat by looking at an
athlete's history. Potential can probably be identified by comparing
that person to their peers and looking for an unusually rapid
progression through the ranks. Potential can limit how bright one's
future can be. If someone's made it up to the top ranks purely on
hard work, it's all great, but chances are it took them a long time
and they will simply run out of time and health before they can reach
greatness. Sad, but true.

But how do you look at motivation? It's what's happening inside the
athlete's head at the present -- not the past like their experience,
and not the future, like their talent might be able to foretell. That
spark that may or may not be there at any given moment is what the
athlete ultimately depends on to leverage their past and realize their
future. How can we peek inside the helmet and see if that individual
is inspired and has the mental strength?

I think Biaggi is a fascinating case study for something like this.
He obviously is capable of getting inspired when things look good for
him. When the stars are aligned (at least in his mind), his morale is
high and he is a force to be reconed with. But the moment something
goes wrong, he simply falls apart. He appears to lack that mental
stamina to fight back in the face of adversity. I believe his
starting out in the sport relatively late in life and propelling
himself rather quickly is also indicative just how much he relies
purely on his natural gift vs working extra hard to be at the top of
his game all of the time.

The opposite can also be true. Some people just don't get inspired
until a certain point in their career. For whatever reason they don't
find that sweet mental and emotional spot that drives them beyond
their perceived limitations until something triggers them to. I
remember reading an interview with Colin Edwards in which he mentions
how he did not start winning in WSBK until he switched his mental
approach from "I'll try to get a good result" to "I'm gonna win this
thing". I'd say it's an example of lighting that internal fire. It
seems trivial and easy in hindsight, but it can be enormously
difficult when you're an unproven entity with heaps of reasons to be
humble.

Age is also a factor I suppose. Some people burn out on the sport and
wake up one day and admit to themselves that they've had enough.
Maybe it's that one final get-off, or a race that just didn't go your
way, or someone's offhand remark that suddenly drives the mental nail
in your coffin, so to speak.

My point is it's hard to know when one's emotional and mental state
may change for the good or for the bad and I'd say it's a huge factor
in what people are capable of in the near future. And as hard as it
is to see it for anyone other than the individual, it's that much
harder when all you're going by is dry numbers, when you're not
familiar with the person and what's really going through their head.

 

Exactly. And when you've never even tried the sport yourself, or the
only bike you've ever riden is a Harley.........

 

I agree. Road Atlanta as far as actual racing was pretty quiet save for
Miguels lunge in Race 1 after Mladin got caught up in traffic. Mat was quite
dominant at RA, but he hasn't been dominant all year, and he was definately
pushing hard in race 1 than in race 2. For me, the season basically ended
when Miguel crashed out, barring something happening to Mat or his bike (and
I hope not).

The biggest problem with AMASB is simply you have the top 5 and The Rest.
Below the top 5, they actually scratch about and get close, but that action
doesn't get as much TV time as the leaders.

Hopefully next year we'll get Yamaha and Kawasaki back in full swing, then
we'll hopefully have 10 competetive riders on 10 competetive bikes.

Regards,

Will Hartung
()

 

I never said he should be pushing harder. I think he is
doing the right thing. I just think Honda will probably
let him go because of his performance, even though
his performance is mostly their fault (not giving him
the latest equipment).

 

Weren't you the one that said ex racers knew nothing? Go down a liitle too
often?
The game at that level is very different. Just because you raced doesn't
make you an expert.
Natural talent needs analytical thought. Often the best insight comes from
those who were ok, but not great.
Had to think about what they were doing, not just do it.
How many championships did Burgess win as a rider?