Question on Stoner post-race quote

"It is very disappointing for the weekend to end like this after showing
such a high level of performance in practice. Basically we took the decision
to put one lap on the race tyre in warm-up this morning to get it scrubbed
in: we've done it before and not had a problem but today I could feel from
the first lap that the grip wasn't right. After a few laps it started to
feel better and I was gaining confidence but it let go."

So was the problem that he only scrubbed in for one lap?

 

I really don't think so. He'd done six laps on it before it let go.
I've started plenty of races on brand new (but hot) tyres without
issue.

 

I wonder if he's fallen into the trap (a gravel trap?) of believing
his own hype?

He's consistently the fastest in every session beofre the race. He
"knows" he's quicker than everyone else.

He then pulls out an early lead in the race; all according to plan.

Then Rossi upsets the applecart by starting to reel him in a tenth or
two at a time. Stoner, "knowing" that he's the quickest man on the
track, tries to up his pace slightly; if Rossi can do those times,
then Stoner must be able to, because he "knows" he's faster.

Except he can't because - on race tyres, on that circuit and with a
full tank - he isn't.

Someone on the BBC coverage (Roger Burnett?) mentioned that they
thought Stoner didn't do enough race simulation runs during practice
and qualifying. See above re believing his own hype.

 

There's something else going on here as well. Or maybe not. Watching
Rossi's practice times, it seems that his fastest split moves around
from one session to the next. Like he's either working on setup to
optimise one split at a time, or mentally working on one split at a time
and not trying so hard in the others. This gives the impression that his
race pace is less than it actually is. I remember days in the past when
he'd really want pole and put together a scarily fast lap where he could
be seen to be trying. I don't feel like I've seen that for a while. Like
he's working just hard enough to get on the front row but not trying to
beat Stoner's pole time. All this feeds Stoner's belief that he is 0.5s
faster. But then when it comes to race time, Rossi matches him lap for
lap.

Stoner's strength is to go 10/10ths every time out and to race the
track, not other people. So he's probably doing the right thing to try
and lead from the front. As long as it works of course.

Roll on Indy.

 

We should be careful from inferring too much from two incidents, but
yes, your analysis seems reasonable.

I agree - he always seems to fly out, do a fast lap, and then go back
to the box.

 

If that's true (not saying it's not, just that I haven't looked at the
splits myself) then it's bloody masterful!

Of course. We all know that bike racing is a huge head game -
confidence is almost everything. Three crashes in a row could really
have screwed with Stoner's head.

 

You want another one? Rossi did a lot of laps in practice, Stoner not so
many partly due to his hand problem. Stoner had to go with the hard
compound Bridgestone, because although they didn't do race distance they
did enough laps to find out it wouldn't last. Rossi had a medium. So
Stoner goes into the race knowing that he's on a front tyre with less
grip than Rossi's. Rossi matches him and then Stoner loses the front.

So did Rossi optimise the bike to make the softer tyre do the distance?
Did Stoner push a harder, less understood, tyre beyond its limits trying
to do lap times that weren't possible on that tyre?

 

I'm just trying to get an idea if he thought it was a bad idea to scrub in
the tire at all or if he thought he did not scrub it in enough?

To me, his quote was clear on this.

I really don't think so. He'd done six laps on it before it let go.
I've started plenty of races on brand new (but hot) tyres without
issue.

 

Well, that's the thing, isn't it - Stoner didn't *need* to push, but
he crashed anyway (which suggests he was pushing).

No kidding! But as you says, he's still young.

 

i think this may be the the real answer. instead of thinking - why is
he crashing now
I tend to think it's amazing he didn't crash this much last year.

he always seemed to race really hard and rash - and often payed for
it
last year he very dramatically shifted results and was very consistent
not
only in winning but in staying upright. This year back to crashing. so
maybe it
isn't some big thing. not really choking, or being mentally beaten by
the goat,
maybe he just needs more maturing in general.

Bruce

 

IMO he is questioning if it should have been scrubed in at all.

Bruce Richmond

 

Then my next question is is this something usually done, is it a Bridgestone
thing, or rider personal preference?

IMO he is questioning if it should have been scrubed in at all.

Bruce Richmond

 

IMO he is questioning if it should have been scrubed in at all.

Bruce Richmond

___

So then he crashes on lap 7.
Does it make a difference?


--
Andrew
00 Daytona
00 Speed Triple
71 Kawi H1
05 Squiddo

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/motorsport/motorbikes/7594025.stm has
this:

Finally, explaining the crash that has virtually handed the title to
Rossi, Casey Stoner revealed that the team had decided to scrub in his
front tyre for the race by putting a couple of laps on it in the
morning warm-up.

"The cooling down and reheating process that took place naturally
after that affected the chemical balance of the tyre, particularly on
the right-hand side, which is the part that comes under most stress,"
explained Stoner.

Cheers,

 

Well, of course, that's possible, but if so it's a big mistake by a
world championship team, and throws up more questions than answers.
The whole point of 'scrubbing in' is to put the tyre through a heat
cycle. If they'd wanted to avoid that, they could have left it in the
warmers the whole time. So, the real question is - why did they scrub
it in?

 

It is not just a Bridgestone thing. Modern race tires do not need to
be scrubed in. Some riders still like to scrub them in because that
is what they have always done and it just doesn't feel right going out
on shiny tires. It makes no difference if you go right out and race
on them. But if you let them cool down after getting them hot the
rubber will get harder. That can be a good thing if it was a bit too
soft to start off with, but it is obviously not an exact science.

 

The surface is affected more than the core so the hardening would be
less noticable after a few laps. Could be he thought the tires were
back to normal and they weren't. IMO it is more likely he needs a
reason for the crash and this one is convenient. At his level the
rider is constantly evaluating the grip for changes so it seems
unlikely that he would have pushed too far just because the tires
usually have more grip. When I say he needs a reason I don't mean he
is trying to put the blame somewhere else, just that he can now tell
himself he knows what happen so it wont happen again. Going really
fast requires head games sometimes.

Bruce

 

This is exactly my take on it.