Middle East Oil Dependency and Peace and Riding...

The same thoughts were probably put forth in front of Nixon in the late 60's
when the US was oil independant. Because somewhere between him and Carter
the country decided that bombs and bullets are cheaper than solving the
united states thirst for middle eastern crude. And that same policy still
applies today.....of course, it won't matter when demand gets around to
outstripping supply, but thats what it will take to really force the issue.
And I don't mean an artificial problem like the oil shocks of the 70's, I
mean there just ain't enough to feed worldwide demand no mo.

More oil moves out of Iraq even during "bad" times then what Canada imports
to us. They simply have more than you do, and its cheaper and easier to get
to, and all those bombs and bullets we've been purchasing are finally coming
in awful handy.

I don't, the world economy does. The business world does. I'm just relaying
what I've seen, read and hear.

Do you really want to do this? I mean seriously, it would take me hours to
get started on field size versus well size distributions ( by country or
basin ), reserve growth and variations in of continuous and conventional
accumulations, economics of the modern oil industry, consumption and
projected demand curves of north america and the United States, and whatever
else I happen to be able to spew off from memory.

So let me just answer your question...Saudi Arabia has more than 1000 wells,
but probably not 2000. Your figure of what they produce is fine, but your
assumption that we get it all is not. We get some 1.7 Million/D, the rest
goes elsewhere. The rest of our imports are provided by...

http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/rankings/crudebycountry.htm

Knock yourself out. If you have any really COOL questions, like how reserve
growth affects current reserve figures and how, and if the peakoilers are
right, or not, and why, or my personal favorite, declining finding rates
which when combined with reserve growth still doesn't account for future
demand extrapolations, THATS a real juicy one....gives everyone fits.

But the tar sands of Alberta? Well...have fun, lots of trucks moving around,
I imagine kids enjoy all the noise and big machines, but solving continental
sized problems ( not worldwide, continental ), let alone the problems of the
worlds biggest consumer nation? Nah...

 

The difference is, now it is happening. As I have already pointed out
and you have ignored right now it is a multi billion dollar industry,
generating almost 100,000 high paying jobs. Twenty years ago it was a
handful of R&D experts trying to find a way to make the economics of
obsolete technology fit with a cheap world oil price.

With the surge in oil prices over the last year or so the tar sands
have become economical and profitable. Extremely profitable. Your
600,000 barrels is actually closer to 800,000 barrels and expected to
triple in the next few years. If your company is not investing in the
tar sands as a part of their strategy I would suggest they are not
representing their shareholders very well.

If you think it is better to give $40.00+ per barrel to a foreign
country for a necessary commodity like oil, than developing that
resource within your own borders, keeping all of the spin off benefits
I have to question your logic.

Don Binns
84 - Virago 1000

When an ill wind blows you can either build a hut or hoist a sail.

http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/reeky.htm
http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/
http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/banff.htm
http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/kananaskis.htm
http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/walkercalgary.htm
http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/calgarybrowning.htm

 

I would only venture that oil shales here in the US have a tremendous in

Why? You aren't much better in the energy efficiency rankings of the world
then we are...we're just bigger, is all.

http://www.ecoworld.com/People/Tables/BTU_Per_Cap_Rank_1995.cfm

Old info, maybe Canada has gotten alot better in the last decade?

 

Dunno. I'm only familiar with western Canada, a place like the western US
( excluding the semi-wacked democrat voting coast we have ) except without
guns...but REAL nice ladies looking for american men so they can get out of
that -40C weather you guys are stuck with sometimes.

 

So...good for Alberta, they can spend $25/BBL and create some oil....I'm
glad it keeps your economy going and all, but in some parts of the world so
does tourism, and it doesn't require BCF of natural gas which could be used
elsewhere or strip mining half the known universe to get the sands out. I
realize that going from an R&D project to 600,000 BBLs/Day might be
wonderful by local standards, but I gotta tell ya, as far as I'm concerned
Hibernia was a trickier deal than a bunch of monster trucks digging up the
landscape. No imagination at all, that.

I don't work for a "company" per se, at least not one oriented along the
lines of the normal oil and gas organizations I worked for after college. I
do research now, so when I think of "investing", I think..."gee...how can
you get a gallon of ethanol created with less energy than it makes when
burned"...now THAT is a interesting stunt....

question away, if joe anyone can poke holes in the expertise I provide at
work, I need to know about it before they do for sure...

 

But you pay the same world oil price for Saudi oil as you do for
Alberta oil. Hence no saving for you at all. The only difference is
the Saudis have a gross profit of around $35.00 to $40.00 dollars per
barrel and tar sands generates $20.00 to $25.00 per barrel. Are you
saying if you had the opportunity to make a profit of $25.00 per
barrel you would decline?

Conventional oil is reaching its limits. I was reading an article in
today's paper as to how the Saudi's have again made a pledge to
increase their production in an attempt to cool down oil prices. It
went on to say most industry analysts do not believe the Saudi oil
industry is capable of another production increase. Production
capacity is just not there.

Old oil is definitely cheap oil. Hell we have lots of old oil to.
Oil that was economical at less than ten bucks a barrel, but it is
harder to find and known stocks are dwindling.

We went through the Arab oil embargo back in the 70's and I doubt your
Government will ever let Arab oil become a dominant part of your
imports again.

Don Binns
84 - Virago 1000

When an ill wind blows you can either build a hut or hoist a sail.

http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/reeky.htm
http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/
http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/banff.htm
http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/kananaskis.htm
http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/walkercalgary.htm
http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/calgarybrowning.htm

 

Oil is, generally and unprofessionally speaking, oil. Why is yours worth
more than the Saudi's? You want more for your product, have your government
subsidize it.

As far as I'm concerned, the more profit the better, its the way of the
world. Which means if I were the Saudi's I wouldn't give a rats ass for
someone who's finding costs were more than mine...like say yours. Money is
money, and the more of it you can make from any product, the better.

Nope. Production capacity is what it is, until you spend money to increase
it. And they can't do that overnight. Which is why I paid $2.54/gal for
regular unleaded at Laguna 3 weeks ago....damn oil companies...gouging us
for all they are worth!

Doesn't matter. The government has no choice anymore. Its a global issue
now, why do you think Nigeria matters? hardly a Persian Gulf country, but
it, like Venezuela, matters. Without it, demand is still there, but no
supply to meet it, and presto, $100 oil. The North Sea, Canadians, NPR in
Alaska, bring it on!

Not hard to imagine now that we've seen $50.

 

You have peaked my interested - If I understand (which I probably don't)
the issue of declining finding rates and reserve groweth not accounting
for future demand sounds like a juicy one.

I don't want to burden the list with this discussion ... heck, I don't
want to burden YOU with having to explain it all to me but I am keanly
interested in the future of fossil fuels... Could you please e-mail me
some refs (targetted to the 'intelligent layperson' if possible)

my e-mail is beckATsunDOTstanfordDOTedu (I presume you know how to
convert the CAPS into symbols)

Thank you in advance,

John Beck

 

OK. Troy the Troll you gotta contact me- you sound like a wealth of
knowledge in a very interesting area.
When I found out that the energy cost of Ethanol exceeded its content (also
producing and delivering Hydrogen to Hydrogen fueling stations is likely
to consume at least 75% of the energy content
of said H) I started wondering what we're going to do when we exhaust
the stored energy in fossil fuels.

How about using semi-permeable membranes to sepaarate the EtOH from the
rest of the sol'n?

beckATsunDOTstanfordDOTedu

 

The Tragically Hip, Great Big Sea, Barenaked Ladies, and Rush.

Feathercraft folding kayaks. Decent beer.

And poutine......mmmmm..... poutine.[1]

What else is there to life?

-- Michael

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poutine

 

http://www.ardice.com/Arts/Movies/Titles/3/30_Dollars

 

I am not sure you read what I wrote. I said you pay the _same_ for
Saudi oil as you do for Alberta oil so regardless of the production
costs, there is no saving to you.

Don Binns
84 - Virago 1000

When an ill wind blows you can either build a hut or hoist a sail.

http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/reeky.htm
http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/
http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/banff.htm
http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/kananaskis.htm
http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/walkercalgary.htm
http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/calgarybrowning.htm

 

I do not have the time right now to look up all the stats but I can
tell you Canada has more oil than Iraq and supplies a larger share of
your imports. As for how much oil is actually leaving Iraq everything
I read points to very little. I will leave it to you to find
something that supports your contention significant amounts of oil are
being exported from Iraq.

Don Binns
84 - Virago 1000

When an ill wind blows you can either build a hut or hoist a sail.

http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/reeky.htm
http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/
http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/banff.htm
http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/kananaskis.htm
http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/walkercalgary.htm
http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/calgarybrowning.htm

 

According to our immigration department's most recent indiscretion the
only group from the US qualifying for expedited entry into Canada are
strippers. Apparently we have a shortage of them up here. Maybe it
has something to do with the 40 below weather. <g>

Don Binns
84 - Virago 1000

When an ill wind blows you can either build a hut or hoist a sail.

http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/reeky.htm
http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/
http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/banff.htm
http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/kananaskis.htm
http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/walkercalgary.htm
http://www3.telus.net/public/dbinns/calgarybrowning.htm

 

Don't say that too loudly, I'm supposed to be an annoyance and a pain, not a
help. Don't want to damage my street rep....

yup....you are just started down the slippery slope of finding out how this
entire mess works and why the tree huggers, who make it sound so easy, are
so far off base it isn't funny. Fortunately, before fossil fuels get
exhausted, something else will come along to at first releive the problems
cause by shortages, and then to mostly replace it. Not a clue if thats a one
thing, or a buncha things, but it has happened throughout history all the
time. bronze and tin, iron ore, whale oil, the chicken littles of the world
have run around screaming that the sky is falling and sure
enough...something else comes along and replaces whatever we were running
out of.

Pete McCabe at the USGS wrote a cool paper a few years back that went over
specific examples of things just like fossil fuels, fascinating reading.

dunno. I just used ethanol as an example of a solution proposed by some that
nets no actual energy.

 

I see. You are right of course. What of it? Oil being oil and all....how
there is a savings for me ( being American ) is I invest in a multi national
who goes out and drills for more saudi crude, thereby benefitting through
investment in their cheaper finding and develepement cost.

 

Oh, its a juicy one alright.

I can push some links your way I imagine. Although if you are at Stanford,
you guys still have a USGS office somewhere on campus?

 

You keep confusing someones reserve estimates of the tar sands as the same
thing as saudi and iraqi wells. They aren't the same thing, if only because
of the capital investment, let alone problems with infrastructure and the
unique challenges in the tar sands themselves.

Well, last I looked they had a capacity running somewhere around a couple
million bbl/day.....much more than the tar sands for sure. For them, thats
probably "very little" once they get cracking on developement of their
resources again instead of fighting insurgents.

 

I went to a strip club in Edmonton a decade ago....DAMN good looking
women...it was a pleasant surprise that particular evening.

 

So, what are the projections? When is this going to be a real problem?
Are there cost estimates, adjusted to today's dollars?

-- Michael