Has Japan moved on..? (paging TOG maybe)

Sorry to have a motorcycle related question on UKRM, but I was
wondering... A few years ago, we were awash with gorgeous 250-400cc grey
imports from Japan. Mainly 400's, especially Honda VFR and RVF 400's.

There are still huge numbers of these late-80's/early-90's bikes about,
but the grey market appears to have slowed down significantly. A look at
the web sites of the importers confirms this.

So, are the Japanese not buying bikes these days? Or has the rest of the
world realised that they can buy used bikes from Japan for bugger all so
it's no longer a viable (hugely profitable) business for UK importers?

Surely if they were riding RVFs 15 years ago we should be getting so
really special toys now?

 

No more alcohol for ken.

 

He makes two very good points. Have you seen the price of fuel and
plastics lately? or maybe you're not affected in blighty. Likewise, a
certain older gent has been prophesising a decline and bottoming out
(don't) of the bike market for some time.

 

Cheaper bikes for all?

 

Maybe in the interim - go look at the deals to be had from dealers on
pre-regg'd bikes today. Maybe not in the long run - usually a decline
in demand increases production costs. I don't know if bike
manufacturers would take that hit or pass it on. I suspect the latter.

Used bikes should get cheaper, but, it's also likely that people will
hang on to their bikes as they can't afford a new one - ergo vicious
circle.

 

There's a lot of reasons. Japan has been weathering an economic
recession, with reduced consumer spending. That now seems to be coming
to an end.

The 400cc class is still competitive in Japan - you can ride a 400 at
age 16, but you have to be 18 for anything bigger - but attention has
moved away from the supersports class. Nakeds and retros are becoming
much more popular.

So Honda hasn't really produced anything more 'advanced' than the
RVF400. As supersports bikes were the meat and drink for the grey
importers, this has left them with a slight problem.

Raw material costs for plastics really aren't the issue (sorry, BGN).
The cost of oil has soared, yeah, but as a total percentage of the
production cost of a sports bike, the oil component in the plastics is
negligible. Obviously it makes a difference elsewhere, in the overall
cost (I'm talking energy here rather than a raw material) but that's a
problem everyone faces.

Motorcycles are a fun and fashion purchase and fashions move on.
Consumers spend their money on other toys, and I'm sure you can think
of half a dozen expensive toys that can be bought in place of a
motorcycle. The economy aspect - bikes as cheap transport - really
doesn't matter any more, unless you're talking about really small basic
commuter machines (scooters and four-stroke 125s).

Now, the UK bike market is cyclical, in almost every aspect. This is
what happened in the early 1980s:

The market boomed through the 1970s and into 1981-82, and then
recession hit: Maggie's economic blizzard. Sales started to tumble. The
Japanese manufacturers panicked and started rushing out dozens and
dozens of new models. Model lives shortened between updates (or even
total replacement) to three years, or even two.

It didn't stimulate the market. Buyers saw residual values tumble as
their bikes were rendered obsolete after a couple of years, and so just
hung onto them. The number of bikes on the road didn't really fall:
people just kept them for longer.

Sounds familiar?

 

TOG@toil, ,

it was I that mentioned plastics, and I didn't mean bike plastics, just
the palstics industry in general - something my lot has felt being a
purchaser of raw materials.

 

oops, sorry both. Well, same applies. The raw material cost of a
fairing is peanuts, taken as a percentage of the overall production
cost.

 

I don't disagree, especially as my point didn't relate to bike
plastics.

Although I would point out there being a lot more plastic on a bike
than just fairings ;o)

 

If I remember right, I think their MOT-style test made it virtually
impossible to keep a vehicle on the road after it was 3 years old. Many
of the grey import 400s had been sat rotting in far-eastern warehouses
for several years before being bought wholesale, shipped over here,
prettied up and sold.

The peak of the grey import boom also coincided with a rapid rise in new
prices over here, where 750 and 900 sized sports bikes were creeping up
to the £9k mark. So a lot of people started looking at cheaper, smaller
capacity hot-poop as an alternative. I think maybe the new UK
motorcycle licence laws also had an effect as a lot of people looking at
being restricted to 33(?) bhp for a couple of years went for the smaller
bikes that weren't such a waste when restricted.

It's a shame Japan isn't targetting the 400cc market like it used to. A
1988 CBR400RR made 59 bhp and weighed 164kg. I wonder what would be
possible now, borrowing technology from the current litre-class bikes,
(or even leading them in technology, as the 400s were often the first to
market back then.) A 400cc R1? A 400cc V5 RC211 even?

Si

 

Yes, this is true: getting a 750cc used to be very hard, but the fact
remains that the 400cc class is still huge because you can nride one at
16, and you need to be 18 for anything bigger.

The 'shaken'.

This is true, too, but the shaken still exists.

 

No, you're wrong here. Insurance is as cyclical as the bike business
generally. Inscos compete for business, rates fall, loadsa business,
then loads of claims, rates go back up again, people rein their spending
in and go TPF&T or buy bikes that are cheaper to insure, inscos see
there's a lot of spare business going, cut their rates...

This *is* the way it's worked for at least 30 years.

 

Yes, but in real terms, insurance prices have *not* fallen. Yes, they
cycle up and down, but the cost of insuring something is a percentage of
the risk involved, and that hasn't changed much.

Paging Dodger, really, as SWK.

 

On Thu, 24 Aug 2006 23:10:43 +0100,

Eh? Nowt to do wiv me, guv. Honest. Nor me employer, neever. Well, not
since the late eighties, anyway.

I will throw in some numbers, though.

1978 - 17yo - TS185 - £154 fc
1979 - 18yo - TS185 - £270 fc with 10% ncd.

1983 - 22yo - Z750 - £360 tpft (in London)
1985 - 24yo - GPz750 - £227 fc.
1986 - 25yo - GPz750 - £227 fc.
1987 - 26yo - GPz750 - £227 fc.
1988 - 27yo - GPz750 - £227 fc.[1]
1989 - 28yo - Gpz750 - £1485 fc - which became ~£350 tpft fairly
sharpish.

The 90's are a bit vague, but this century, I've paid:

£840; £856; £696; £748; and £893 ...

Fully comp - Wing & Blackbird and a variety of SOBs

I'm not sure if those numbers tell us anything, but they're the only
data I have.

[1]Any one see a pattern forming? This was when the Pru stopped bike
insurance. The were down to £20k of premiums annually. That's why
their premiums never shifted - it almost wasn't worth working them out
every year.
--
| ___ Salad Dodger
|/ \
_/_____\_ GL1500SEV/CBR1100XXX/CBX1000Z
|_\_____/_| ..82616../..22238.../..31893.
(>|_|_|<) TPPFATUICG#7 DIAABTCOD#9 WG*
|__|_|__| BOTAFOT #70 BOTAFOF #09 PM#5
\ |^| / IbW#0 & KotIbW# BotTOS#6 GP#4
\|^|/ ANORAK#17 IbB#4 YTC#4 two#11
'^' RBR Clues: 36 Pts: 660 Miles:2579

 

They may have fallen as a percentage of income, but that's not the same
thing as saying they've fallen dramatically in real terms.

Oh yes, but risk assessment is still at the core of every insurance
deal.

Fairy nuff, but that's not bike insurance, is it? Houses don't generally
drive themselves off roads into ditches.

This is exactly what I said earlier - pressure brings prices down. But
it's still cyclical.

Fairy nuff again. But I think that rates *will* rise. They may be cheap
now, but they will rise again. Have you forgotten the last time that
there ere rates hikes, and big sports bikers became impossible for some
to insure? Not so long ago, either. Mid-to-late 1990s, IIRC.

Bike insurance is an odd thing. The third party risks are very, very
high. And bikes have a habit of being crashed (see above). Companies
come and go. Who remembers Refuge Insurance nowadays? But 25 years ago
they were one of the most competitive insurers.

Ultimately, it is, like all the bike business, cyclical, as I've always
said, and for the reasons stated.

Consider scooter insurance. You probably don't have much to do with the,
and nor do I, but not so long ago insurers were offering a £99 deal for
all the family to ride.... some Peugeot 50, I think it was. That didn't
last long. But for a while, scooter insurance was cheap.

 

What we're both saying is that prices may indeed be competitive (even
cheap) now.

What I'm also saying is that this is part of a cycle. What Wessie has
said is "whether these price movements are part of a cycle that can be
extrapolated over decades is irrelevant." and I'm afraid that it *is*
relevant.

 

<snip>

"Whatever"